UK retail sales are weak in June and worse expected for July, says CBI

Retailers reported that annual sales volumes fell “at a sharp pace in June”, the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey has shown. It meant the ninth month in a row of declining volumes and there will probably be a 10th as retailers expect sales to fall again in July. 

The CBI survey doesn’t give actual sales figures but provides a weighted balance of the percentage of retailers saying sales fell or rose to one degree or another. So this time, the weight balance was  -46% (that is, 46% of retailers saying sales fell) compared to -27% in May. And 49% expect sales “to decline rapidly again next month”.

Sales volumes for the time of year were judged to be “poor” in June, to a greater extent than in May (-37% for June from -19% in May). Retailers expect July’s sales to fall short of seasonal norms to a broadly similar degree (-38%).  

Online retail sales volumes rose slightly in the year to June (+6% from +37% in May) and are expected to grow again next month (+8%).  

Martin Sartorius, Principal Economist at the CBI, said: “Retail sales volumes fell rapidly in the year to June, extending the recent downturn into its ninth consecutive month. Many firms report[ed] that consumer caution continues to hold back sales. These data suggest that underlying activity remains subdued in the distribution sector.”